EntryTriggers:
入场触发器:
VolatilityBreakout:Thistheoryassumesthatasuddenlargemoveinonedirectionindicatesthatatrendinthedirectionofthebreakouthasbegun.Normallytheentryrulegoessomethinglikethis:Buyonastopifthepricerises2ATRsfromyesterday抯close.Orsellshortonastopifthepricedeclines2ATRsfromthepreviousclose.Thegeneralconcepthereisthatonanormaldaythepricewillonlyriseorfall1ATRorlessfromthepreviousclose.Risingorfalling2ATRsisanunusualoccurrenceandindicatesthatsomethingoutoftheordinaryhasinfluencedthepricestocausethebreakout.Theinferenceisthatwhatevercausedthisbreakouthasmajorimportanceandanewtrendisbeginning.
波动性突变:该理论认为突然出现的某个方向的大幅运动表明与该方向相同的趋势正在形成。一般来说,我们的入场规则可以表述为:当价格比上一交易日收盘价高2ATR时买入,当价格比上一交易日收盘价低2ATR时卖出。这里的一般概念是在平常交易日里价格涨跌不会超过上一交易日收盘价1ATR,超过上一交易日收盘价2ATR的价格涨跌是不寻常的事件,这表明有什么不同寻常的事發生了。由此可以做出的结论是:促使价格这么运动的原因是实质性的,一个新的趋势正在形成。
SomevolatilitysystemsoperatebymeasuringthebreakoutinpointsratherthanunitsofATR.ForexamplethesystemmayrequirethattheYenmustrise250pointsfromthepreviousclosetosignalabreakouttotheupside.SystemsmeasuringpointsratherthanunitsofATRmayneedfrequentreoptimizationtostayintunewithcurrentmarketconditions.However,breakoutsmeasuredinunitsofATRshouldnotrequirereoptimizationbecause,aswepreviouslyexplained,theATRvaluecontractsandexpandswithchangingmarketconditions.
一些波动性突变系统的评价标准以点数为单位,而不是以ATR为单位。例如它们认为当日元比上一个收盘价高出250点时才表明上升趋势出现。以点数为单位而不是以ATR为单位的投资理论需要不断的调整优化,才能与市场变化保持一致。然而,以ATR为单位的投资理论不需要优化,正如我们以前解释的那样,ATR值会随着市场变化而变化。
Changeindirectiontrigger:Letsassumethatwewanttobuyadipinarisingmarket.Wecombinethediporrallysetupdescribedabovewithanentrytriggerthattellsusthediporrallymaybeoverandtheprimarytrendisresuming.
方向改变触发器:假定我们想在上升趋势中的回调买入,我们可以将我们之前谈到的回调或反弹背景与入场触发器结合起来,后者能告诉我们什么时候回调或反弹已经结束,也就是告诉我们主要趋势什么时候正在恢复。
Theseriesofrulesmightreadsomethinglikethis:Iftheclosetodayis2.0ATRsgreaterthanthe40daymovingaverage(thisconditionestablishesthatthelongtermtrendisstillup)andtheclosetodayis2ATRsormorebelowtheclosesevendaysago(thisconditionestablishesthatwearepresentlyinadipwithintheuptrend)thenbuytomorrowifthepricerises0.8ATRsabovetodayslow.Thisentrytriggershowsthatwehaveralliedsignificantlyfromarecentlowandthatthedipisprobablyover.Asweenterthetradethepricesareagainmovinginthedirectionofthemajortrend.
这一系列规则可以表述为:如果今天的收盘价比40天移动均价高2ATR或更多,这表明长期趋势是向上的;而且今天的收盘价比七天前的收盘价低2ATR或更多,这表明我们正处在上升趋势的回调中,那么我们就会在明天价格比今天最低价高出0.8ATR时买入。入场触发器表明市场已经从近期低点中恢复上涨,回调可能已经结束,当我们进入市场后,市场会再次向主趋势方向运动。
Asyoucansee,theATRcanbeamostvaluabletoolfordesigninglogicalentries.InournextarticlewewilldiscussusingATRinourexitstrategiesandgivesomeinterestingexamples.
正如你在上面看到的,ATR在设计合理入场策略时是非常有价值的工具。在我们的下篇文章中,我们将会讨论ATR在退出策略中的应用,并给出一些有趣的应用实例。
UsingAverageTrueRangeforExits
ATR在离市中的应用
InthisBulletinwewillshowhowATRcanhelpusachievemoreaccurateexits.
在本文中我们将向大家展示ATR如何帮助我们更准确的离市
ATREXITTARGETS:PerhapsthemostvaluableofallapplicationofATRistouseittodefineprofitobjectives.Ifweweretorunsometeststodefineprofitobjectiveintermsofdollarswecouldprobablyfindaparticulardollaramountthatproducedacceptableresultswhenreviewinghistoricaldata.Justasanexample,let\'sassumethatwerunsomeoptimizationstofindthebestlevelatwhichtotakeprofitsinaparticularmarketandwefindthatthebestnumberis$1250.Althoughthisamountmayproduceacceptableresultsonahistoricalbasisitisnotalwaysthebestsolutiontotheproblem.
ATR出场策略:或许ATR最有价值的应用是用来确定盈利目标。如果我们对用美元数量表示的盈利目标进行测试,我们很可能找到这样一个美元数量表示的盈利目标,它在历史数据测试中能产生理想的回报。比如,假设我们经过优化后已经找到能在某一特定市场获得正期望收益的最佳盈利目标——1250美元。虽然该方法能在历史测试中获得满意效果,但这不是解决問題的最好方法。
Whenthemarketisquietandthereislittlevolatilityourprofitsarelikelytofallwellshortofour$1250objective.Howeverwhenthemarketisvolatileandtrendingstronglyourpotentialprofitmightbemuchgreaterthan$1250.The$1250levelissimplyanotsohappymediumthatisusuallyeithertoolargeatargetortoosmallatarget.
当市场平静的时,波动性变小,我们的盈利极可能低于1250美元的目标;然而当市场波动性变大,而且形成一个强劲的趋势,我们的潜在盈利很可能远大于1250美元。1250美元的目标水平无法让人满意,要么有时目标水平太高,要么有时目标水平太低。
OntheotherhandifwemeasureourprofitobjectiveintermsofATRwehaveamuchmorerobustandlogicalsolution.LetsassumethatwerunourtestsagainlookingforunitsofATRinsteadofdollars.Assumeourresearchshowsusthatourbestprofitobjectiveisnowexpressedas4ATRs.Inanormalmarket4ATRsmightbeequalto$1250,thesameasourdollardenominatedtarget.Howeverinaquietmarket4ATRSmightonlybe$800.TheadvantageofourATRresearchisthatwhileouroriginal$1250targetisnolongerobtainablebecauseofthequietmarketconditionstheATRtargethasadaptedtothechangeinvolatilityandcanstillbeachieved.