µ±ÎÒÃdzÖÓвÖλµÄʱºò£¬ÎÒÃDZØÐë×¼±¸ºÃÊг¡¿ÉÄܳöÏֵIJ»ÀûÓÚÎÒÃǵĴó·ùÔ˶¯»òÓÐÀûÓÚÎÒÃǵĴó·ùÔ˶¯£¨ÁîÈ˾ªÆæµÄÊÇ£¬ÓëÓÐÀûµÄ´ó·ùÔ˶¯Ïà±È£¬ÎÒÃÇÄܸüºÃµÄ´¦Àí²»ÀûµÄ´ó·ùÔ˶¯¡£ÎÒÃÇÂíÉϾͻá½âÊÍÕâÒ»µã£©¡£Êг¡ÓÐÎÞÏÞ·N¿ÉÄÜ£¬±ÈÈçȱ¿Ú¡¢Äæת¡¢ÌìÁ¿¡¢µØÁ¿¡¢²¨¶¯Çø¼ä¿ä´ó£¬²¨¶¯Çø¼äËõСµÈµÈ£¨ÔÎÄÓкܶàÊõÓÎÒ²»»á·Ò룬ÂÔÖ®¡£Èç¹ûÓÐÖªµÀµÄ»¹ÍûÖ¸µã£©
Because we have to be prepared for all this and more, it should be no wonder that our exit strategies are often much more complex than our entry strategies. We need to have solutions ready for any problem the market might send our way. As I mentioned earlier, the losses are rarely the problem because we can control those by simply setting a loss point and closing out the trade if the loss point is hit. Here again we are facing an issue of control and it is comforting to know that we do have a great deal of control over our losses. If we want to design a system where the average loss is $487.50 it wouldn't be difficult. We can absolutely control the size of our losses and we must be certain that we do.
ÓÉÓÚÎÒÃDZØÐëÓ¦¶ÔËùÓÐÉÏÃæÌáµ½µÄÒÔ¼°ÆäËû¸ü¶àÇé¿ö£¬ºÁ²»Ææ¹ÖÎÒÃǵÄÍ˳ö²ßÂÔÍùÍù±ÈÈëÊвßÂÔ¸ü¸´ÔÓ¡£ÎÒÃDZØÐë×¼±¸ºÃ½â¾öÊг¡¸øÎÒÃÇÌá³öµÄÄÑÌâ¡£ÕýÈçÎÒÔçÏÈÌáµ½µÄ£¬Ëðʧ¼¸ºõ²»ÄÜËãµÃÉÏÊÇÒ»¸ö†–î}£¬ÒòΪÎÒÃÇÄܼòµ¥µÄͨ¹ýÉèÖÃÖ¹ËðµãÀ´¿ØÖÆÎÒÃǵÄËðʧ£¬Èç¹ûÖ¹Ëðµã±»´¥·¢£¬ÎÒÃǾÍÍ˳ö½»Òס£ÎÒÃÇÓÖÒ»´ÎÃæ¶Ô¿ØÖÆÁ¦µÄ†–î}£¬ÎÒÃǺܸßÐ˵ÄÖªµÀÎÒÃÇÄÜÔںܴó³Ì¶ÈÉÏ¿ØÖÆÎÒÃÇ×Ô¼ºµÄËðʧ¡£Èç¹ûÎÒÃÇÏëÉè¼ÆÒ»¸öϵͳ£¬Æäƽ¾ùËðʧ²»³¬¹ý487.50$£¬ºÜÈÝÒ××öµ½¡£ÔÚËðʧ¹æÄ£ÉÏÎÒÃÇÓоø¶ÔµÄ¿ØÖÆÁ¦£¬ÎÒÃDZØÐëÈ·±£ÎÒÃÇÄÜ×öµ½ÕâÒ»µã¡£
All of our exit strategies have to be carefully planned to be certain that we control what can be controlled. First we must recognize and understand what can be controlled and then we must make certain that we exercise whatever control we have. It may be comforting to know that we can strictly control losses but it is extremely discomforting to realize that we have very little control of our profits. If we have a $500 profit, how do we make it become a $1000 profit? Unfortunately holding on to the trade longer gives us no assurance that we will eventually have a $1,000 profit.
ÎÒÃDZØÐ뾫ÐÄÖƶ¨ÎÒÃǵÄÿһ¸öÍ˳ö²ßÂÔÒÔÈ·±£ÎÒÃÇÄÜ¿ØÖƺÃÎÒÃÇËùÄÜ¿ØÖƵġ£Ê×ÏÈÎÒÃDZØÐëÈÏʶ²¢Àí½âÄÇЩÎÒÃÇÄÜ¿ØÖƵIJ¿·Ö£¬²¢È·±£ÎÒÃÇÕæÕý×öµ½ÕâÒ»µã¡£¸ßÐ˵ÄÊÇÎÒÃÇÄÜÑϸñ¿ØÖÆËðʧ£¬µ«Ê®·ÖʧÍûµÄÊÇÎÒÃǺÜÉÙÄÜ¿ØÖÆÎÒÃǵÄÀûÈó¡£Èç¹ûÎÒÃÇÓÐ500$Ó¯Àû£¬ÎÒÃǸÃÔõô×ö²ÅÄÜʹӯÀû±äΪ1000$¡£²»ÐÒµÄÊÇ£¬ÑÓ³¤³Ö²Öʱ¼ä²¢²»Äܱ£Ö¤ÎÒÃÇ×îÖÕÄÜ»ñµÃ1000$Ó¯Àû¡£
In this instance we have very little control but let's see what we can do with the control that we do have. Although the amount of profits can not be controlled in the sense of our somehow forcing them to be larger, they can be controlled in the sense that we don't have to let them become smaller or turn into losses. Those of you who have purchased any of our systems will appreciate that locking in open profits at various levels is important to the success of our trading strategies. You will notice that in the "25 X 25" Bond System (free on the web site) we use a very tight channel to help lock in profits after twenty-five days or after five Average True Ranges of profit. We can't control the market and force it to give us five ATRs of profit, but if it does we can make sure that we keep most of it. Protecting our open profits is definitely within our control.
Ãæ¶ÔÓ¯Àû£¬ÎÒÃǵĿØÖÆÁ¦ºÜС£¬µ«ÈÃÎÒÃÇ¿´¿´ÎÒÃÇȷʵӵÓеĿØÖÆÁ¦ÄÜÈÃÎÒ×öЩʲô¡£¾¡¹Ü´Ó´ÙʹӯÀûÔö´óµÄ½Ç¶ÈÀ´Ëµ£¬ÎÒÃÇÎÞ·¨¿ØÖÆÎÒÃÇÓ¯ÀûµÄ´óС£¬µ«´Ó·ÀÖ¹Ó®Àû±äС»ò±ä³ÉËðʧµÄ½Ç¶ÈÀ´Ëµ£¬ÎÒÃÇÄÜ¿ØÖÆÎÒÃÇÓ¯ÀûµÄ´óС¡£ÄÇЩ¹ºÂò¹ýÎÒÃÇͶ×ÊÀíÂÛµÄÈ˽«»áÈÏʶµ½Ëø¶¨¸÷·NˮƽµÄ¸¡¶¯Ó¯Àû¶Ô½»ÒײßÂԵijɹ¦À´Ëµ·Ç³£ÖØÒª£¬²¢×¢Òâµ½ÎÒÃÇÔÚ"25 X 25" BondϵͳÖÐʹÓÃÒ»·N·Ç³£ÏÁÕµÄÇø¼ä°ïÎÒÃÇÔÚ25Ììºó»òÕßÔÚ»ñµÃ5±¶ATRsµÄÓ¯ÀûºóËø¶¨¸¡¶¯Ó¯Àû¡£ÎÒÃDz»ÄÜ¿ØÖÆÊг¡£¬ÎÒÃÇÒ²²»ÄÜÇ¿ÆÈÊг¡¸øÎÒÃÇ5±¶ATRsµÄÓ¯Àû£¬µ«ÎÒÃÇÄÜÈ·±£ÎÒÃÇÄÜ»ñµÃ´ó²¿·Ö¸¡¶¯Ó¯Àû¡£ÎÞÒɱ£»¤ÎÒÃǵĸ¡¶¯Ó¯ÀûÔÚÎÒÃǵĿØÖÆ·¶Î§Ö®ÄÚ¡£
When conceptualizing a new trading system and when going through the design and testing routine, be alert to issues of control. Look for what you can control and make sure that you are controlling it to your benefit. Look at what you can not control and as a minimum have some plan that will minimize any possible damage. Thinking about control will make you a better trader and implementing control will make your systems trade better.
ÔÚ¹¹Ë¼Í¶×ÊÀíÂÛʱ£¬ÔÚ¼ì²éϵͳʱ£¬ÔÚ¼ìÑéϵͳʱ£¬Òª×¢Òâ¿ØÖƆ–î}¡£¹Ø×¢ÄãËùÄÜ¿ØÖƵIJ¢È·±£½«ÊÂÇéÍùÓÐÀûÓÚÄã×Ô¼ºµÄ·½Ïò·¢Õ¹¡£¹Ø×¢Äã²»ÄÜ¿ØÖƵIJ¿·Ö£¬²¢Öƶ¨¼Æ»®½«¿ÉÄܵÄÉ˺¦½µµ½×îµÍ¡£Ë¼¿¼¿ØÖƆ–î}»áʹÄã³ÉΪһ¸ö¸üºÃµÄ½»Ò×Õߣ¬ÊµÏÖ¿ØÖÆÁ¦½«»áʹÄãµÄϵͳ½»Ò׵ĸü³É¹¦
¡¡¡¡µãÆÀ£º
¡¡¡¡
¡¡¡¡1¡¢ÔÎÄдµÃÄÇô³¤£¬·´·´¸´¸´£¬Æäʵ˵µÄÒâ˼ºÜ¼òµ¥£¬ÔÚ½»Ò×ÖÐ×îºÃ¿ØÖƵÄÊÇÈ볡ʱ»ú¡¢Æä´ÎÊÇÖ¹Ëð³ö³¡ºÍֹӮʱ»ú£¬×îÄÑ¿ØÖƵÄÊÇÈçºÎ³Ö²ÖÈÃÓ¯Àû±ä´ó¡£ÕâÀïÒý³öÒ»¸öÑ¡Ôñ†–î}£¬ÎÒÃÇÊÇ°ÑÖصã·ÅÔÚ¼òµ¥µÄ²¿·ÖÉÏ£¬¿ØÖÆÎÒÃÇËùÄÜ¿ØÖƵģ¬×öÎÒÃÇËùÄÜ×öµÄ£¨Ò²¼´È볡£¬È»ºóµÈ×ÅÖ¹Ëð»òÕßÖ¹Ó®£©£¬»¹ÊÇ°ÑÖصã·ÅÔÚÓÐÄѶȵIJ¿·ÖÉÏ£¬Ñ§»áÈçºÎÈÃÓ¯Àû±ä´ó£¿ÔÎÄ×÷ÕßÏÔÈ»ÇãÏòÓÚÇ°Õߣ¬µ«¾ÍÎÒ¸öÈËÏÖÔڵĹ۵ãÀ´¿´£¬ÎÒÇãÏòÓÚ²»Òª½ï½ï¼Æ½ÏÓÚ3£¥£¬5£¥»òÕß10£¥µÄÖ¹Ëð£¬ÎÒÈÏΪ½»Ò×µÄÖص㲻ÊÇÈç´ËÕâ°ãµÄÖ¹Ëð£¬ÉõÖÁÎÒÈÏΪÔÚijһƷ·NÉÏ¿÷Ëð50£¥»òÕß°Ù··N®Æß°ËÊ®¶¼Ã»¹Øϵ£¬¹Ø¼üÊÇѧ»áÈçºÎÓµÓÐÓ¯Àû100£¥¡¢300£¥µÄÆ··N¡£
¡¡¡¡
¡¡¡¡2¡¢µÚһƪ“ÀëÊеÄÖØÒªÐÔ”£¬¿ÉÒÔÈÃÎÒÃÇ˼¿¼ÔÚͶ×ÊÀíÂÛ¼ìÑéÖÐҪעÒâµÄ†–î}£¬²¢¿ÉÒÔÂíÉÏÉè¼Æ¼ÆËã»ú³ÌÐòÀ´¼ìÑéÎÒÃǵÄһЩÏë·¨¡£Õâƪ“Àí½â¿ØÖÆ”£¬Ëƺõ²¢²»ÄÜÂíÉÏÔÚʵ¼ùÖмìÑéÎÒÃǵÄһЩÏë·¨¡£±ÈÈçÈçºÎ¼ø±ðÄÜ´øÀ´¼¸±¶Ó¯ÀûµÄÆ··N£¬ÈçºÎÔÚ²»Ôö¼Ó½»Ò×ƵÂʵÄÇé¿öÏ»ñµÃ³¤ÆÚÇ÷ÊƵĴ󲿷ÖÓ¯Àû¡£
¡¡¡¡
¡¡¡¡3¡¢ATRÊÇÒ»¸ö³£¼ûµÄÖ¸±ê£¬Æ½¾ùµ¥¸ùKÏßÖеļ۸ñ²¨¶¯·ù¶È¡£5±¶ATRȷʵÊǸö²»´íµÄ»ñÀûÄ¿±ê£¬Í¨³£Ò²ÊǽϴóµÄÀûÈó¡£Ëû×Ô¼ºËµµÄÒ²²»ÊÇÍêȫͬÀàµÄÏÖÏó£¬ÎÒÕâôÀí½â£ºÌø¿Õȱ¿Ú£¬·´×ª£¬Í£°å£¬À¾â£¬ÉõÖÁ¸ü²îµÄÇé¿ö£ºÁîÈËÑá·³µ½Ïë³·×ÊËûͶµÄºáÏòÒƶ¯¡£Êг¡Ò²ÐíÕ¹ÏÖ¸øÎÒÃǼÛÄÚÈÕ£¬¼ÛÍâÈÕ£¬·´×ªÈÕ£¬¹Ø¼ü·´×ªÈÕ£¬ÌìÁ¿ÈÕ£¬µØÁ¿ÈÕ£¬À©ÕŵÄÇø¼ä£¬ÊÕËõµÄÇø¼ä£¬¼ÓËٺͼõËÙ¡£ÆäʵÓйسֲֵĆ–î}½¶÷˵µÄ±È½ÏÇå³þ£º²»ÒªÒòΪ²»ÄÍ·³¶ø³öÊУ¬ÒªÈ·ÈÏÇ÷ÊÆȷʵÒѾÄæתÔÙѸËÙƽ²Ö¡£