当我们持有仓位的时候,我们必须准备好市场可能出现的不利于我们的大幅运动或有利于我们的大幅运动(令人惊奇的是,与有利的大幅运动相比,我们能更好的处理不利的大幅运动。我们马上就会解释这一点)。市场有无限種可能,比如缺口、逆转、天量、地量、波动区间夸大,波动区间缩小等等(原文有很多术语,我不会翻译,略之。如果有知道的还望指点)
Because we have to be prepared for all this and more, it should be no wonder that our exit strategies are often much more complex than our entry strategies. We need to have solutions ready for any problem the market might send our way. As I mentioned earlier, the losses are rarely the problem because we can control those by simply setting a loss point and closing out the trade if the loss point is hit. Here again we are facing an issue of control and it is comforting to know that we do have a great deal of control over our losses. If we want to design a system where the average loss is $487.50 it wouldn't be difficult. We can absolutely control the size of our losses and we must be certain that we do.
由于我们必须应对所有上面提到的以及其他更多情况,毫不奇怪我们的退出策略往往比入市策略更复杂。我们必须准备好解决市场给我们提出的难题。正如我早先提到的,损失几乎不能算得上是一个問題,因为我们能简单的通过设置止损点来控制我们的损失,如果止损点被触发,我们就退出交易。我们又一次面对控制力的問題,我们很高兴的知道我们能在很大程度上控制我们自己的损失。如果我们想设计一个系统,其平均损失不超过487.50$,很容易做到。在损失规模上我们有绝对的控制力,我们必须确保我们能做到这一点。
All of our exit strategies have to be carefully planned to be certain that we control what can be controlled. First we must recognize and understand what can be controlled and then we must make certain that we exercise whatever control we have. It may be comforting to know that we can strictly control losses but it is extremely discomforting to realize that we have very little control of our profits. If we have a $500 profit, how do we make it become a $1000 profit? Unfortunately holding on to the trade longer gives us no assurance that we will eventually have a $1,000 profit.
我们必须精心制定我们的每一个退出策略以确保我们能控制好我们所能控制的。首先我们必须认识并理解那些我们能控制的部分,并确保我们真正做到这一点。高兴的是我们能严格控制损失,但十分失望的是我们很少能控制我们的利润。如果我们有500$盈利,我们该怎么做才能使盈利变为1000$。不幸的是,延长持仓时间并不能保证我们最终能获得1000$盈利。
In this instance we have very little control but let's see what we can do with the control that we do have. Although the amount of profits can not be controlled in the sense of our somehow forcing them to be larger, they can be controlled in the sense that we don't have to let them become smaller or turn into losses. Those of you who have purchased any of our systems will appreciate that locking in open profits at various levels is important to the success of our trading strategies. You will notice that in the "25 X 25" Bond System (free on the web site) we use a very tight channel to help lock in profits after twenty-five days or after five Average True Ranges of profit. We can't control the market and force it to give us five ATRs of profit, but if it does we can make sure that we keep most of it. Protecting our open profits is definitely within our control.
面对盈利,我们的控制力很小,但让我们看看我们确实拥有的控制力能让我做些什么。尽管从促使盈利增大的角度来说,我们无法控制我们盈利的大小,但从防止赢利变小或变成损失的角度来说,我们能控制我们盈利的大小。那些购买过我们投资理论的人将会认识到锁定各種水平的浮动盈利对交易策略的成功来说非常重要,并注意到我们在"25 X 25" Bond系统中使用一種非常狭窄的区间帮我们在25天后或者在获得5倍ATRs的盈利后锁定浮动盈利。我们不能控制市场,我们也不能强迫市场给我们5倍ATRs的盈利,但我们能确保我们能获得大部分浮动盈利。无疑保护我们的浮动盈利在我们的控制范围之内。
When conceptualizing a new trading system and when going through the design and testing routine, be alert to issues of control. Look for what you can control and make sure that you are controlling it to your benefit. Look at what you can not control and as a minimum have some plan that will minimize any possible damage. Thinking about control will make you a better trader and implementing control will make your systems trade better.
在构思投资理论时,在检查系统时,在检验系统时,要注意控制問題。关注你所能控制的并确保将事情往有利于你自己的方向发展。关注你不能控制的部分,并制定计划将可能的伤害降到最低。思考控制問題会使你成为一个更好的交易者,实现控制力将会使你的系统交易的更成功
点评:
1、原文写得那么长,反反复复,其实说的意思很简单,在交易中最好控制的是入场时机、其次是止损出场和止赢时机,最难控制的是如何持仓让盈利变大。这里引出一个选择問題,我们是把重点放在简单的部分上,控制我们所能控制的,做我们所能做的(也即入场,然后等着止损或者止赢),还是把重点放在有难度的部分上,学会如何让盈利变大?原文作者显然倾向于前者,但就我个人现在的观点来看,我倾向于不要斤斤计较于3%,5%或者10%的止损,我认为交易的重点不是如此这般的止损,甚至我认为在某一品種上亏损50%或者百贩N甙耸济还叵担丶茄Щ崛绾斡涤杏�100%、300%的品種。
2、第一篇“离市的重要性”,可以让我们思考在投资理论检验中要注意的問題,并可以马上设计计算机程序来检验我们的一些想法。这篇“理解控制”,似乎并不能马上在实践中检验我们的一些想法。比如如何鉴别能带来几倍盈利的品種,如何在不增加交易频率的情况下获得长期趋势的大部分盈利。
3、ATR是一个常见的指标,平均单根K线中的价格波动幅度。5倍ATR确实是个不错的获利目标,通常也是较大的利润。他自己说的也不是完全同类的现象,我这么理解:跳空缺口,反转,停板,拉锯,甚至更差的情况:令人厌烦到想撤资他投的横向移动。市场也许展现给我们价内日,价外日,反转日,关键反转日,天量日,地量日,扩张的区间,收缩的区间,加速和减速。其实有关持仓的問題江恩说的比较清楚:不要因为不耐烦而出市,要确认趋势确实已经逆转再迅速平仓。