strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for crude oil may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices. Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen.
US - Chain Store Sales
How does this affect the market?
r9SMonthly sales volumes from individual department, chain, discount, and apparel stores are usually reported on the first Thursday of each month. Chain store sales correspond with roughly 10 percent of retail sales. Chain store sales are an indicator of retail sales and consumer spending trends.
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Spending at major retail chains did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001 and again in 2003. Chain store sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among individual retailers and different store categories. Perhaps the discount chains such as Target and Wal-Mart are doing well, but the high-end department stores such as Tiffany's are lagging. Maybe apparel specialty retailers are showing exceptional growth. These trends from the monthly chain store data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for the quarterly or annual reports. Just a few words of caution. Sales are reported as a change from the same month, a year ago. It is important to know how strong sales actually were a year ago to make sense of this year's sales. In addition, sales are usually reported for "comparable stores"
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in case of company mergers.
附錄2.3
外汇US - Treasury STRIPS
How does this affect the market?
A report on the amount of net stripping of Treasury securities that has taken place during the month. The report details gross stripping and reconstitution of Treasury notes and bonds by individual issue.
STRIPS is an acronym for Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities. A normal Treasury note or bond consists of a principal payment and semiannual interest payments. For example, a 30-year Treasury bond for $1,000 consists of 60 interest payments--one every six months for 30 years--and a principal payment of $1,000 when the bond matures. If this bond gets stripped of its interest (coupon) payments, it becomes a "zero-coupon" bond. The owner doesn't get paid any interest but buys the right to repayment of principal, $1,000, at a deep discount to the face value. Investors buy these to guarantee a certain payment amount at a specific point in the future (e.g. when a child will be ready for college), but don't want income from the bonds over that period.
US - Money Supply
How does this affect the market?
The monetary aggregates are alternative measures of the money supply by degree of liquidity. Changes in the monetary aggregates indicate the thrust of monetary policy as well as the outlook for economic activity and inflationary pressures.
To be honest, the various money supply measures don't matter to most investors these days. The monetary aggregates (known individually as M1, M2, and M3) used to be all the rage a few years back because the data revealed the Fed's (tight or loose) hold on credit conditions in the economy. The Fed issues target ranges for money supply growth. In the past, if actual growth moved outside those ranges it often was a prelude to an interest rate move from the Fed. Today, monetary policy is understood more clearly by the level of the federal funds rate. Money supply fell out of vogue in the nineties, due to a variety of changes in the financial system and the way the Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy. The Fed is working on some new measures of money supply, and given the way economic indicators ebb and flow in
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popularity, don't be surprised if the monetary aggregates make a comeback in the future.
DE - Merchandise Trade
How does this affect the market?
Merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
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